Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Like a wizard the sea, casts a spell of salty dreams on me, No more will I float - now I view my fate through a periscope

A contrary observation and stance gets you far in life.  What's on my mind?, The Kite Flying Society, T&A, and shorting gold --

Stance 1 -- The Kite flying Society's 'Where is the Glow' is an example of one of these stances.  Convention throws them aside, they have NO reviews on Amazon for an album that's been out almost FIVE years, they're not new, not only do they not make MTV or VH1, they don't even make the Indie rock magazine of choice, and they're not playing your favorite bar or festival.  The path of a deviant is lonely, there's nothing to argue about, b/c society at large forgets the relevance in objects, hence deeming them as not important to critique.  I compare this to a stock I sat on all summer, looking at the numbers (as I do lyrics of songs) and going, damn, this is perfect.  Sure enough, all of a sudden I'm up big.  I'm not going to win, or even partake in for that matter in most conversations that toil over weather something is hardcore or ironic enough, nor right or wrong.  Societies association of the object doesn't speak to me, the object has a conversation with my soul, and the brain follows.

Stance 2 -- NOT talking about T&A and high fiving with the gang is unique out here.  You always have to tolerate meat heads in the world, you just hope few and far between.  Yea she's hot, yea, blah blah blah, look how awesome I am talking about girls like this, I'm just IT!  The respect of women brings you closer to them, I would say that's a contrary view, especially out here in this cage.

Stance 3 -- Shorting gold is a play I'm looking at in the markets.  We always hear contrary rumors, one says India traded tbills for gold, others say Germany sold gold to pay down their national debt, who really knows.  I do know there's never a shortage of 'the sky is falling' people with 'sky is falling ideas', that suggest 'this time its different', that say, 'o trust me' that go 'my daddy is a banker, and he knows', etc, etc.  While these folks are watching infomercials on Superbowl advertisements that say to melt down your gold chains, we'll do it for 99 bucks and ounce, or buy the gold plate, b/c the GOLD plate has GOLD in it, it keeps its VAULE, GOLD GOLD GOLD.  The idea of owning gold is gilded, the shorties will pound it down, guess you could call it a 'beauty' of market forces.

The world decided to play the fiat money game sometime in the 70's, which has worked well, but every time there's a slight hiccup in the system, or their politician doesn't get elected, or whatever, the whole world comes crashing down.

The fiat game will come back to order, and the massive imbalance b/w gold and silver, and gold and energy, etc will all come back.  This assumes the balancing effect is just more than the USD.  The world as a whole is coming out of a growth slump and will return, decreasing the price of gold, and innovation and energy then again become center stage.  Short gold, long on energy and innovation, I'd say that's the contrary viewpoint.  THIS is the inverse of THIS, I'm going with the latter for 2010.

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Random Rant on the Markets
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Time dictates the patterns of the market, and not really anything else.  It's not about new product lines, or sales, or price earnings ratios, and all this technical stuff, however, the art and science behind these patterns seem predictable (support and resistance levels), I have some more time to perfect and automate these to the point where hopefully one day I'm sitting on the beach in Acapulco sipping a Rita making the rent.

It's been about a year since my brother in law and I had a contest on howthemarketworks.com.  My END OF US DOMINANCE portfolio = UP 92%, his US WILL RECOVER portfolio = UP 28%, US BLUECHIPS = UP 41%. That was then, the END OF US DOMINANCE portfolio train has left the station.  My thoughts for 2010, WORLD RECOVERS, and the burden will never be put on the US consumer again, which is a good thing.

My practical stance moving forward, half goes to the plan below, half goes to violently risky (but well thought out) bets on RED (China that is) --

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Core Segment (25% Total)
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Cash = 5% (Money Market)
Total Bond = 15% (US T-Bills)
Total US Stock = 20% (Spider)
Total Intl Stock = 60% (Spider)

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Target Market Segment (25% Total)
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20% - Gold - DZZ
30% - Energy - IYE
10% - Agricultural Commodities - DBC
10% - Real Estate - ICF
30% - Emerging Markets - EEM

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